Monday, January 25, 2010

Here is an interesting chart from the New York Times showing the percentage of US treasuries purchased by China from 2002 through 2009. As suggested below, China purchased less than 5% of newly issued treasury securities in 2009 vs. a peak of 47.4% in 2006. As of November, China represented our largest creditor with treasury holdings of $790 billion, outpacing Japan with $757 billion and Britain with $278 billion.

While it seemed unfathomable at the beginning of 2009 that the 10-year would stay well below 4% even in the face of a $1.4 trillion federal deficit, hardly anyone (including your humble author) anticipated that American households and financial institutions would so dutifully fill the void left by the Chinese and Japanese. As noted in the following article "Debt Burden Now Rests on US Shoulders" domestic investors financed a remarkable 61% of US treasury borrowing last year. Whether domestic investors will continue to pile into government securities remains the biggest question hanging over the treasury market as we enter 2010.



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